The Failure of Foreign Policy Entrepreneurs in the Trump Administration

One of the most important decisions a president will make after an election is what kind relationship he/she have with cabinet secretaries and agency heads. Will be controlling or autonomy giving? George H. W. Bush created contractor presidency, one that subcontracted management to officials, giving them considerable freedom, making policy entrepreneurs. Yet, when it came time support initiatives, did not back his entrepreneurs, which ultimately led failure. Bush's approach government informative because its similarities Donald J. Trump's strategy, who also presidency. But Trump prevented those same executives from building their own teams gave equivocal, even contradictory, responses initiatives. Just as unsupportive entrepreneurs defeat, contradicting connection resulted in Dolan, Chris 2008. “The Shape Elite Opinion on U.S. Foreign Policy, 1992 2004.” Politics & Policy 36 (4): 542-585. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1747-1346.2007.00121.x/abstract Haar, Roberta. 2010. “Explaining Adoption Neoconservative Agenda 9/11.” 38 (5): 965-990. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1747-1346.2010.00265.x/abstract Una de las decisiones más importantes que tomará un presidente después una elección es qué tipo relación tendrá con los secretarios del gabinete y jefes agencias. ¿El estará controlando o dando autonomía? creó presidencia contratistas, subcontrataba la administración funcionarios importantes, dándoles libertad considerable, convirtiéndolos en empresarios políticos. Sin embargo, cuando llegó el momento apoyar iniciativas, no respaldó sus políticos, lo finalmente condujo al fracaso políticas. El enfoque hacia gobierno informativo debido similitudes estrategia Trump, quien también contratista. Pero impidió esos mismos ejecutivos crearan propios equipos dio respuestas equívocas incluso contradictorias iniciativas Así como falta apoyo políticos llevó derrota políticas, conexión contradictoria resultó 一名总统在选举后要作的最重要的决策之一是，他/她将和内阁部长及政府机构负责人形成什么样的关系。总统将采取集权还是放权？乔治·H·W·布什总统创造了一个合约式总统职位（contractor presidency），它将管理分包给重要官员，赋予其大量自由，让其成为政策企业家。然而，在应支持倡议计划时，布什并未支持其政策企业家，这最终导致政策失败。布什对待政府的方法能提供有用信息，因为其与唐纳德·J·特朗普的战略相似，后者也创造了一个合约式总统职位。不过，特朗普阻止了同样的行政官员建立各自团队，并对政策倡议计划给出模糊甚至是矛盾的回应。布什与政策企业家之间的不支持关系导致了政策失败，与此相同的是，特朗普与政策企业家之间的矛盾关系也导致了政策失败。 makes soon he she heads departments agencies her administration. control officials give autonomy? For example, Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Barack Obama implemented strategy central oversight while both presidents afforded top greater latitude, allowing them, for instance, select subordinates. In particular, adopted some key described presidency (Laffin 1996)—one mandated innovation executives, freedom (Warshaw 1996). Public scholar Martin Laffin found specifically appointed three activists two positions head. Through activism, certainly improved morale agency. Their strong activist reputations further enhanced expectations good outcomes. However, success, opposite was true. Thus, (1996) designed research, where used variety documentary sources, find out why developed by Administration much less satisfactory than had anticipated approach. discovered that, end, level entrepreneurial spirit appointees matter because, without presidential activism—without spending political capital backing entrepreneurs—policy failed. Perhaps doomed fail start due underlying reasons individual broad over All were dealing domestic policy; namely, Education, Housing Urban Development, Environmental Protection Agency. From experiential perspective, affinity nor commitments. As (1996, 550) writes, “recognized necessity acquiring achievements improve chances re-election, yet saw little need well-defined agenda.” limited vague goals, made sense delegate authority certain politically known individuals more expertise specific domains. Still, this lead autonomous appointed. Laffin's analysis went wrong these comparison since failed similar reasons. When became president, few commitments, agenda foreign policy, notion transactional governing. Like Bush, lacked relevant expertise. unlike appeared special respect admiration character generals first part (Haberman, Thrush, Baker 2017; Kelly 2016). This research focuses whom independence area presidency; Executive Office President (Secretary Defense General James Mattis National Security Adviser R. McMaster), White House Chief Staff (General John Kelly). investigation, defines failure as: (1) there achievement; (2) outcomes do match desired proposed entrepreneur; (3) disorganized confusing decision within area. identifies five scenarios outlined later article might produce types presidency—with unwillingness expend power being element The offered present suggests causal mechanisms First like withheld crucial put forth and, second insisted appointing too many inexperienced loyalists, actively emasculated entrepreneurs' autonomy. interplay between factors evidence are illustrated through cases: preservation strengthening alliance system maintenance sanctions Russia. case selection here determined importance levels investment (in terms time, energy, reputation) expended advancing additionally independent views espoused. Because attention has been paid elements investigation begins verifying model valid evidenced empowering top-level It then establishes embraced toward policy. next step identify alternate consider whether explanations apply version. subsequent studies demonstrate all instances possible unsuccessful methods employed, consideration utilizes content News Web corpus (Davies 2013). period November 8, 2016 (the day won election) January 2, 2019 final any operatives held office Administration), 1,395 news reports identified New York Times Washington Post mentioned search entrepreneurs.11 restrictions inherent Davies' (2013) mean identification article, original source retrieved Post. study always cites source. reviewed manually applicability coded type interaction.22 De-selection criteria misidentification operative, repetitions previous new details, summaries (e.g., WaPo's Daily 202; NYT Monday Briefing), opinion pieces instead factual reporting, typical activities operative indication interaction relation House, early thinking exchange opinions occurred at reporting Mattis' trial balloon regarding potential provision arms Ukraine late August 2017), personal episodes biographic background, infighting among administration staff Trump’s clear preferences involvement. total, 130 documents 16 related causes, examined below. Appendix A provides list codes frequency occurrence. section Diagnosing Contractor Presidency presents preliminary overview each factors. Additionally, qualitative process tracing employed studies, illustrate Process valuable way document sequence events (Bennett Checkel 2015; Collier, Brady, Seawright 2010, 2011). Most administrative mirrors historical trend whereby tighten (Kagan 2001; Lewis 2009; Nathan 1975; Resh 2015). overcoming scarcity considering qualifies focus discussion literature functions they engage (Carter Scott Roberts King 1991). lie heart strategy. expands entrepreneurship placing context executive empowers win Entrepreneurial may include: advocate ideas develop innovative proposals (Dahl 1961; David Mintrom 1997; Norman 1991; Sheingate 2003); define reframe problems accordance (Arieli Cohen 2013; Kelman 1987; Polsby 1984; Riker 1986; specify alternatives public (Hersman 2000; Kingdon 1995; 1984); mobilize (Kelman 1995); help set decision-making (Kingdon 2003). considered engaged quest actors build coalitions supporters secure Smith 1991), attempted. Research shown adept manipulating likely attain goals (Mintrom Vergari 1998). only activities, believed numerous statements thought strong, leadership essential progress work (Kelly Undoubtedly, entrepreneur clearly idea behind Secretary Defense. Upon appointment, latitude other given defense chief, especially Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Southwest Asia (Gordon 2017). Soon easy confirmation process, began pursue particular moved reassure allies Asia, Middle East, Europe (Mattis Three strategic planning December 2017 2018, point generals' formulating security agreement views. major speech presenting administration's Strategy (NDS), McMaster authors reflected concerns about future threats America, including elevating Russia main threat (U.S. Department 2018b; Wormuth 2018). Though presented document, (NSS), speech, know contents (Brands 2017f). NSS, written senior Council (NSC) staffer Nadia Schadlow, restated America's commitment partners, rejected isolationism, reaffirmed broader role overseas. third 2018 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), included acquire low-yield tactical nuclear weapons direct response Russia's announcement options 2018a). emphasized development NPR wanted posture remain credible deterrent modernizing arsenal. Together policies disagreed inclination neo-isolationism cultivating Russian Vladimir Putin. Afghanistan another example capacity different voiced well dissimilar initially plan fall fully accepted it, massive increase offensive air large-scale troop expansion. Senate Armed Services Committee shift practice tightly military troops' call airstrikes against Taliban—a critics charge micromanaging war (Gates 2014). changes despite fact campaign stance viewpoint Strategist, Steve Bannon (Nakamura Phillip To overcome Bannon's enabling viewpoint, mid-August 2017, Kelly, McMaster, planned Camp national retreat, deliberately excluded Bannon, Afghanistan. number resisted implementing areas influence. worked Republicans Congress avoid ban transgender people slow-walked implementation (Hirschfeld, Davis, Cooper 2017a). delayed withdrawal Iran deal attempt declare China currency manipulator (Baker repeatedly attempted soften trade (Swanson Kelly's statements, upon departure show how resistance policies: “in Los Angeles interview, suggested tenure should judged actions Mr. in, opposed ones did” (Haberman Before embarking supporting causes establish meant How you recognize failure, come result scenarios? detects when: output 2018a, 2018c; 2018; Goldsmith Patrick Sestanovich cases below detail, suffering debilitating credibility gap stated said did. established cases, diligently operationalize yet, year, succeed. continues initial integration interactions, followed via tracing. delineates themselves poorly functioning bureaucratic and/or performers. While true outright politicians, respected successful bureaucracies administrations before positions. Mattis, former NATO Supreme Allied Commander military's leading intellectuals (Sestanovich four-star general able commander Iraq wars. appointment chief traditional would forthcoming. Similar widely scholar, reputation telling truth (Braniff Kroenig Wright Herb At three-star general, graduate West Point, earned PhD history, authored best-selling book failures during Vietnam War. McMaster's thoughtful foreign-policy establishment extremely pleased appointment. Michael O'Hanlon Brookings Institution “quite possibly single talented 3-star history” (Wright such accolades “America First” devotees whose position enjoyed security, hard oust (Brannen Gray tension generals, poorest hire retired Vice Admiral Bob Harward. Harward withdrew name assurances Whatever obstacles him, NSC considerably immediate predecessor Brannen McLaughlin head Homeland (DHS) moving unexpectedly July 2017. He forged close partnership realize shared goals. highly Marine served assistant Secretaries Robert Gates Leon Panetta promised speak “truth power” (Abrams Of closest ideologically, zeal enacted tough immigration DHS (Trump 2017e). Indeed, qualities picked him empowered bring chaotic Wing (Bender Haberman, does indicate mistakes caused individually. Instead, shows arrivals overwhelmingly hailed welcome injection experience. Moreover, influence expected moderating normalizing, living up (Tennis Tumulty Examples include steering away controversy calming international opponents, thereby retaining (Birnbaum Parker Lamothe states “the structure [Kelly] [as Staff] resembles presidents” experience amassed conduct office, poor scenario factor undermine throttle examples attempting implement form consultation departments: order aimed re-opening CIA black sites (Miller travel (Rein Eilperin Jared Kushner's informal talks (Rucker serving threatening rhetoric North Korea Harris During timeframe under often exhibited passive-aggressive behavior tendency agree last person spoke (Allin 2016; Chong Wittes Glasser Kruse McAdams Visser, Book, Volk Wolf behavior, personality (Visser, That easily suggestible reason brought board replace Reince Priebus. immediately tried restrict information counter task joined enablers Advisor Flynn, contradicted best contributed received prove counterproductive February Associated Press reported inauguration United States monitor times (Salama Pace noted monitoring small task. (2017b, 2018) attempts shape difficult combatant Iraq. struggle spills into insist loyalists. emphasize loyalty, linked 552) quotes Reagan's Defense, Frank Carlucci, said, “If don't get your place, going end one-armed paper hanger.” Successful leaders rely heavily sublevel appointments translate Building team internalized mission gives ensures can ideas. presence loyalists—who allegiances president—creates centrifugal forces. pull confused making. cohesive team, policies. teams. (at behest) tussled fill undersecretary position, twice objecting picks. across spectrum appoint excluding 122 Republican experts signed “Never Trump” letter (Open Letter GOP Leaders waged battles loyalists issues trade, immigration, world. steps NSA remove but clashes conflictive himself president. clashed Kushner keep Flynn's personnel (Costa part, (labeled “Flynnstones”) push tactics online labeled #FireMcMaster ran difficulty wanting holdovers Administration; fire (Gray Gradually place NSC, spent effort fighting Flynnstone stalwarts. Flynn-aligned embarked leak increasing tarnish called 16-year conflict “McMaster's War” (Everett Dawsey met DHS. His preferred deputy staff, Christian Marrone, Jeh Johnson was, therefore, rejected. woman choose, Kirstjen Nielsen, enforcer gatekeeping significant disciplinary measures (Parker Rucker reveals pattern rapid dismissal turnover First, fired perceived disloyalty Haberman Shear Second, preponderance allegiance ability flatter quickly exposed suited jobs left fired. one-year mark half high-level either resigned, record-setting rate (Dunn Tenpas According Kathryn Dunn (2018), wrote report House's “staggering” hiring firing rate, “turnover creates disruption, inefficiencies, affects morale” (quoted Keith high manner functioned. This, turn, leaving inability sound, coherent fourth pro